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Abstract A drift‐diffusion model is used to simulate the low‐altitude electron distribution, accounting for azimuthal drift, pitch angle diffusion, and atmospheric backscattering effects during a rapid electron dropout event on 21st August 2013, atL = 4.5. Additional external loss effects are introduced during times when the low‐altitude electron distribution cannot be reproduced by diffusion alone. The model utilizes low‐altitude electron count rate data from five POES/MetOp satellites to quantify pitch angle diffusion rates. Low‐altitude data provides critical constraint on the model because it includes the drift loss cone region where the electron distribution in longitude is highly dependent on the balance between azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. Furthermore, a newly derived angular response function for the detectors onboard POES/MetOp is employed to accurately incorporate the bounce loss cone measurements, which have been previously contaminated by electrons from outside the nominal field‐of‐view. While constrained by low‐altitude data, the model also shows reasonable agreement with high‐altitude data. Pitch angle diffusion rates during the event are quantified and are faster at lower energies. Precipitation is determined to account for all of the total loss observed for 450 keV electrons, 88% for 600 keV and 38% for 900 keV. Predictions made in the MeV range are deemed unreliable as the integral energy channels E3 and P6 fail to provide the necessary constraint at relativistic energies. 

Abstract Last closed drift shell (LCDS) has been identified as a crucial parameter for investigating the magnetopause shadowing loss of radiation belt electrons. However, drift orbit bifurcation (DOB) effects have not been physically incorporated into the LCDS calculation. Here we calculate event‐specific LCDS using different approaches to dealing with the DOB effects, that is, tracing field lines ignoring DOB, tracing test particles rejecting field lines with DOB, and tracing particles including field lines with DOB, and then incorporate them into a radial diffusion model to simulate the fast electron dropout observed by Van Allen Probes in May 2017. The model effectively captures the fast dropout at highL*and exhibits the best agreement with data when LCDS is calculated by tracing test particles with DOB more physically included. This study represents the first quantitative modeling of the DOB effects on radiation belt magnetopause shadowing loss via a more physical specification of LCDS. 

Abstract Magnetopause shadowing (MPS) effect could drive a concurrent dropout of radiation belt electrons and ring current protons. However, its relative role in the dropout of both plasma populations has not been well quantified. In this work, we study the simultaneous dropout of MeV electrons and 100s keV protons during an intense geomagnetic storm in May 2017. A radial diffusion model with an event‐specific last closed drift shell is used to simulate the MPS loss of both populations. The model well captures the fast shadowing loss of both populations atL* > 4.6, while the loss atL* < 4.6, possibly due to the electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering, is not captured. The observed butterfly pitch angle distributions of electron fluxes in the initial loss phase are well reproduced by the model. The initial proton losses at low pitch angles are underestimated, potentially also contributed by other mechanisms such as field line curvature scattering.